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BTTS O/U 2.5 Stats
⚽

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

ML-validated value bets • Backtested on 21,736 matches

216

Analysed

33

📉 Under

18

📈 Over

24%

Value Rate

📉

Under 2.5 Strategy

La Liga & Ligue 1 excluded

60.4%

Win Rate

+4.7%

ROI

📈

Over 2.5 Strategy

55%+ prob, 10%+ edge required

65.0%

Win Rate

+1.6%

ROI

Filters

🎯 11 Strong 15%+ ⭐ 9 Good 12-15% 👍 13 Moderate 10-12%

Strong Edge 15%+ (11)

🎯 STRONG A-League
Macarthur v Brisbane Roar
Fri 19 Dec, 07:00
Under 2.5
@ 2.07
Prob: 80% +33.6% edge
View analysis xG: 1.39
Expected Goals 1.39
0 2.5 line 5+

Our Under

80%

vs 48% bookie

Our Over

20%

vs 55% bookie

Under Edge +33.6%
Over Edge -33.6%
🎯 STRONG Conference League
Crystal Palace v KuPS
Thu 18 Dec, 20:00
Under 2.5
@ 3.00
Prob: 58% +26.5% edge
View analysis xG: 1.83
Expected Goals 1.83
0 2.5 line 5+

Our Under

58%

vs 33% bookie

Our Over

42%

vs 71% bookie

Under Edge +26.5%
Over Edge -26.5%
🎯 STRONG Serbian Super Liga
TSC Backa Topola v FK Crvena Zvezda
Sat 13 Dec, 16:00
Under 2.5
@ 3.00
Prob: 55% +23.8% edge
View analysis xG: 1.90
Expected Goals 1.90
0 2.5 line 5+

Our Under

55%

vs 33% bookie

Our Over

45%

vs 74% bookie

Under Edge +23.8%
Over Edge -23.8%
🎯 STRONG League One
Bolton v Exeter City
Sat 13 Dec, 15:00
Under 2.5
@ 2.22
Prob: 65% +21.9% edge
View analysis xG: 1.69
Expected Goals 1.69
0 2.5 line 5+

Our Under

65%

vs 45% bookie

Our Over

35%

vs 59% bookie

Under Edge +21.9%
Over Edge -21.9%
🎯 STRONG Czech First League
Plzen v Dukla Praha
Sun 14 Dec, 14:30
Under 2.5
@ 2.27
Prob: 62% +19.7% edge
View analysis xG: 1.76
Expected Goals 1.76
0 2.5 line 5+

Our Under

62%

vs 44% bookie

Our Over

38%

vs 60% bookie

Under Edge +19.7%
Over Edge -19.7%
🎯 STRONG Czech First League
Slavia Praha v FK Jablonec
Sat 13 Dec, 17:00
Under 2.5
@ 2.30
Prob: 62% +18.9% edge
View analysis xG: 1.76
Expected Goals 1.76
0 2.5 line 5+

Our Under

62%

vs 43% bookie

Our Over

38%

vs 58% bookie

Under Edge +18.9%
Over Edge -18.9%
🎯 STRONG Premier League
Arsenal v Wolves
Sat 13 Dec, 20:00
Under 2.5
@ 2.55
Prob: 57% +18.4% edge
View analysis xG: 1.86
Expected Goals 1.86
0 2.5 line 5+

Our Under

57%

vs 39% bookie

Our Over

43%

vs 62% bookie

Under Edge +18.4%
Over Edge -18.4%
🎯 STRONG A-League
Western Sydney Wanderers v Auckland
Fri 19 Dec, 09:00
Under 2.5
@ 2.13
Prob: 62% +17.3% edge
View analysis xG: 1.75
Expected Goals 1.75
0 2.5 line 5+

Our Under

62%

vs 47% bookie

Our Over

38%

vs 57% bookie

Under Edge +17.3%
Over Edge -17.3%
🎯 STRONG Belgian Pro League
Cercle Brugge v KV Mechelen
Sat 13 Dec, 15:00
Under 2.5
@ 2.33
Prob: 59% +17.1% edge
View analysis xG: 1.82
Expected Goals 1.82
0 2.5 line 5+

Our Under

59%

vs 43% bookie

Our Over

41%

vs 60% bookie

Under Edge +17.1%
Over Edge -17.1%
🎯 STRONG Belgian Pro League
Anderlecht v St. Truiden
Sat 13 Dec, 19:45
Under 2.5
@ 2.25
Prob: 59% +16.2% edge
View analysis xG: 1.82
Expected Goals 1.82
0 2.5 line 5+

Our Under

59%

vs 44% bookie

Our Over

41%

vs 59% bookie

Under Edge +16.2%
Over Edge -16.2%
🎯 STRONG Serie A
Atalanta v Cagliari
Sat 13 Dec, 19:45
Under 2.5
@ 2.21
Prob: 60% +15.0% edge
View analysis xG: 1.81
Expected Goals 1.81
0 2.5 line 5+

Our Under

60%

vs 45% bookie

Our Over

40%

vs 56% bookie

Under Edge +15.0%
Over Edge -15.0%

Good Edge 12-15% (9)

⭐ GOOD Belgian Pro League
Genk v KVC Westerlo
Sun 14 Dec, 18:15
Under 2.5
@ 2.65
Prob: 51% +15.0% edge
View analysis xG: 1.97
Expected Goals 1.97
0 2.5 line 5+

Our Under

51%

vs 38% bookie

Our Over

49%

vs 66% bookie

Under Edge +15.0%
Over Edge -15.0%
⭐ GOOD Turkish Süper Lig
Rizespor v Eyüpspor
Sat 13 Dec, 11:30
Under 2.5
@ 2.02
Prob: 63% +14.9% edge
View analysis xG: 1.73
Expected Goals 1.73
0 2.5 line 5+

Our Under

63%

vs 50% bookie

Our Over

37%

vs 53% bookie

Under Edge +14.9%
Over Edge -14.9%
⭐ GOOD League Two
Cheltenham v Harrogate Town
Sat 13 Dec, 15:00
Under 2.5
@ 1.85
Prob: 66% +13.6% edge
View analysis xG: 1.68
Expected Goals 1.68
0 2.5 line 5+

Our Under

66%

vs 54% bookie

Our Over

34%

vs 50% bookie

Under Edge +13.6%
Over Edge -13.6%
⭐ GOOD Serie A
Parma v Lazio
Sat 13 Dec, 17:00
Under 2.5
@ 1.71
Prob: 71% +13.5% edge
View analysis xG: 1.57
Expected Goals 1.57
0 2.5 line 5+

Our Under

71%

vs 58% bookie

Our Over

29%

vs 43% bookie

Under Edge +13.5%
Over Edge -13.5%
⭐ GOOD Conference League
Omonia Nicosia v Raków Częstochowa
Thu 18 Dec, 20:00
Under 2.5
@ 1.70
Prob: 70% +13.1% edge
View analysis xG: 1.60
Expected Goals 1.60
0 2.5 line 5+

Our Under

70%

vs 59% bookie

Our Over

30%

vs 44% bookie

Under Edge +13.1%
Over Edge -13.1%
⭐ GOOD Scottish Championship
Queen's Park v Dunfermline
Sat 13 Dec, 15:00
Under 2.5
@ 1.74
Prob: 69% +12.8% edge
View analysis xG: 1.62
Expected Goals 1.62
0 2.5 line 5+

Our Under

69%

vs 57% bookie

Our Over

31%

vs 44% bookie

Under Edge +12.8%
Over Edge -12.8%
⭐ GOOD Greek Super League
Panetolikos v AEK Athens FC
Sun 14 Dec, 15:30
Under 2.5
@ 1.84
Prob: 66% +12.8% edge
View analysis xG: 1.68
Expected Goals 1.68
0 2.5 line 5+

Our Under

66%

vs 54% bookie

Our Over

34%

vs 48% bookie

Under Edge +12.8%
Over Edge -12.8%
⭐ GOOD Conference League
Sparta Praha v Aberdeen
Thu 18 Dec, 20:00
Under 2.5
@ 2.47
Prob: 51% +12.5% edge
View analysis xG: 1.97
Expected Goals 1.97
0 2.5 line 5+

Our Under

51%

vs 40% bookie

Our Over

49%

vs 64% bookie

Under Edge +12.5%
Over Edge -12.5%
⭐ GOOD Turkish Süper Lig
Kayserispor v Alanyaspor
Sat 13 Dec, 14:00
Under 2.5
@ 2.20
Prob: 57% +12.5% edge
View analysis xG: 1.87
Expected Goals 1.87
0 2.5 line 5+

Our Under

57%

vs 45% bookie

Our Over

43%

vs 57% bookie

Under Edge +12.5%
Over Edge -12.5%

Moderate Edge 10-12% (13)

👍 MODERATE Turkish Süper Lig
Fatih Karagümrük v Kocaelispor
Sun 14 Dec, 14:00
Under 2.5
@ 1.78
Prob: 67% +12.0% edge
View analysis xG: 1.67
Expected Goals 1.67
0 2.5 line 5+

Our Under

67%

vs 56% bookie

Our Over

33%

vs 47% bookie

Under Edge +12.0%
Over Edge -12.0%
👍 MODERATE A-League
Melbourne Victory v Adelaide United
Sat 13 Dec, 08:35
Under 2.5
@ 2.54
Prob: 50% +12.0% edge
View analysis xG: 2.00
Expected Goals 2.00
0 2.5 line 5+

Our Under

50%

vs 39% bookie

Our Over

50%

vs 64% bookie

Under Edge +12.0%
Over Edge -12.0%
👍 MODERATE Czech First League
Baník Ostrava v Pardubice
Sat 13 Dec, 14:00
Under 2.5
@ 2.00
Prob: 60% +11.7% edge
View analysis xG: 1.81
Expected Goals 1.81
0 2.5 line 5+

Our Under

60%

vs 50% bookie

Our Over

40%

vs 54% bookie

Under Edge +11.7%
Over Edge -11.7%
👍 MODERATE Scottish Championship
Arbroath v Partick
Sat 13 Dec, 15:00
Under 2.5
@ 1.78
Prob: 65% +11.6% edge
View analysis xG: 1.69
Expected Goals 1.69
0 2.5 line 5+

Our Under

65%

vs 56% bookie

Our Over

35%

vs 48% bookie

Under Edge +11.6%
Over Edge -11.6%
👍 MODERATE Serie A
AS Roma v Como
Mon 15 Dec, 19:45
Under 2.5
@ 1.74
Prob: 68% +11.5% edge
View analysis xG: 1.64
Expected Goals 1.64
0 2.5 line 5+

Our Under

68%

vs 57% bookie

Our Over

32%

vs 44% bookie

Under Edge +11.5%
Over Edge -11.5%
👍 MODERATE League Two
Salford City v Colchester
Sat 13 Dec, 12:30
Under 2.5
@ 1.95
Prob: 61% +11.4% edge
View analysis xG: 1.79
Expected Goals 1.79
0 2.5 line 5+

Our Under

61%

vs 51% bookie

Our Over

39%

vs 53% bookie

Under Edge +11.4%
Over Edge -11.4%
👍 MODERATE Ukrainian Premier League
Dynamo Kyiv v Veres Rivne
Sun 14 Dec, 13:30
Under 2.5
@ 2.08
Prob: 57% +11.2% edge
View analysis xG: 1.85
Expected Goals 1.85
0 2.5 line 5+

Our Under

57%

vs 48% bookie

Our Over

43%

vs 56% bookie

Under Edge +11.2%
Over Edge -11.2%
👍 MODERATE Ukrainian Premier League
LNZ Cherkasy v Zorya Luhansk
Sat 13 Dec, 13:30
Under 2.5
@ 1.73
Prob: 67% +11.0% edge
View analysis xG: 1.67
Expected Goals 1.67
0 2.5 line 5+

Our Under

67%

vs 58% bookie

Our Over

33%

vs 46% bookie

Under Edge +11.0%
Over Edge -11.0%
👍 MODERATE Ukrainian Premier League
Polessya v Karpaty
Sat 13 Dec, 16:00
Under 2.5
@ 1.84
Prob: 63% +10.4% edge
View analysis xG: 1.75
Expected Goals 1.75
0 2.5 line 5+

Our Under

63%

vs 54% bookie

Our Over

37%

vs 50% bookie

Under Edge +10.4%
Over Edge -10.4%
👍 MODERATE League One
Blackpool v Lincoln
Sat 13 Dec, 15:00
Under 2.5
@ 1.80
Prob: 64% +10.4% edge
View analysis xG: 1.73
Expected Goals 1.73
0 2.5 line 5+

Our Under

64%

vs 56% bookie

Our Over

36%

vs 49% bookie

Under Edge +10.4%
Over Edge -10.4%
👍 MODERATE A-League
Perth Glory v Sydney
Sat 13 Dec, 10:45
Under 2.5
@ 2.45
Prob: 50% +10.2% edge
View analysis xG: 2.00
Expected Goals 2.00
0 2.5 line 5+

Our Under

50%

vs 41% bookie

Our Over

50%

vs 62% bookie

Under Edge +10.2%
Over Edge -10.2%
👍 MODERATE Serie B
Sudtirol v Bari
Sat 13 Dec, 14:00
Under 2.5
@ 1.70
Prob: 67% +10.1% edge
View analysis xG: 1.67
Expected Goals 1.67
0 2.5 line 5+

Our Under

67%

vs 59% bookie

Our Over

33%

vs 45% bookie

Under Edge +10.1%
Over Edge -10.1%
👍 MODERATE Turkish Süper Lig
Trabzonspor v Beşiktaş
Sun 14 Dec, 17:00
Under 2.5
@ 2.23
Prob: 54% +10.1% edge
View analysis xG: 1.93
Expected Goals 1.93
0 2.5 line 5+

Our Under

54%

vs 45% bookie

Our Over

46%

vs 58% bookie

Under Edge +10.1%
Over Edge -10.1%
🎯 2 Strong 15%+ ⭐ 4 Good 12-15% 👍 12 Moderate 10-12%

Strong Edge 15%+ (2)

🎯 STRONG Swiss Super League
FC Winterthur v FC Thun
Tue 16 Dec, 19:30
Over 2.5
@ 1.68
Prob: 81% +24.5% edge
View analysis xG: 2.62
Expected Goals 2.62
0 2.5 line 5+

Our Under

19%

vs 45% bookie

Our Over

81%

vs 60% bookie

Under Edge -24.5%
Over Edge +24.5%
🎯 STRONG Primeira Liga
Arouca v Alverca
Sun 14 Dec, 20:30
Over 2.5
@ 2.27
Prob: 62% +18.7% edge
View analysis xG: 2.23
Expected Goals 2.23
0 2.5 line 5+

Our Under

38%

vs 59% bookie

Our Over

62%

vs 44% bookie

Under Edge -18.7%
Over Edge +18.7%

Good Edge 12-15% (4)

⭐ GOOD Serie A
Genoa v Inter
Sun 14 Dec, 17:00
Over 2.5
@ 2.08
Prob: 65% +17.3% edge
View analysis xG: 2.29
Expected Goals 2.29
0 2.5 line 5+

Our Under

35%

vs 53% bookie

Our Over

65%

vs 48% bookie

Under Edge -17.3%
Over Edge +17.3%
⭐ GOOD Swiss Super League
FC Zurich v FC Winterthur
Sat 13 Dec, 17:00
Over 2.5
@ 1.48
Prob: 81% +16.7% edge
View analysis xG: 2.62
Expected Goals 2.62
0 2.5 line 5+

Our Under

19%

vs 37% bookie

Our Over

81%

vs 68% bookie

Under Edge -16.7%
Over Edge +16.7%
⭐ GOOD A-League
Wellington Phoenix v Newcastle Jets
Sun 14 Dec, 02:00
Over 2.5
@ 1.55
Prob: 79% +15.4% edge
View analysis xG: 2.57
Expected Goals 2.57
0 2.5 line 5+

Our Under

21%

vs 38% bookie

Our Over

79%

vs 65% bookie

Under Edge -15.4%
Over Edge +15.4%
⭐ GOOD Bundesliga
FC St. Pauli v 1. FC Heidenheim
Sat 13 Dec, 14:30
Over 2.5
@ 2.14
Prob: 62% +15.3% edge
View analysis xG: 2.23
Expected Goals 2.23
0 2.5 line 5+

Our Under

38%

vs 54% bookie

Our Over

62%

vs 47% bookie

Under Edge -15.3%
Over Edge +15.3%

Moderate Edge 10-12% (12)

👍 MODERATE Croatian HNL
NK Slaven Belupo v Dinamo Zagreb
Sun 14 Dec, 14:00
Over 2.5
@ 1.80
Prob: 68% +14.9% edge
View analysis xG: 2.37
Expected Goals 2.37
0 2.5 line 5+

Our Under

32%

vs 48% bookie

Our Over

68%

vs 56% bookie

Under Edge -14.9%
Over Edge +14.9%
👍 MODERATE Premier League
Nottingham Forest v Tottenham
Sun 14 Dec, 14:00
Over 2.5
@ 2.07
Prob: 62% +14.4% edge
View analysis xG: 2.24
Expected Goals 2.24
0 2.5 line 5+

Our Under

38%

vs 53% bookie

Our Over

62%

vs 48% bookie

Under Edge -14.4%
Over Edge +14.4%
👍 MODERATE Swiss Super League
BSC Young Boys v FC Luzern
Sun 14 Dec, 13:00
Over 2.5
@ 1.58
Prob: 76% +14.2% edge
View analysis xG: 2.52
Expected Goals 2.52
0 2.5 line 5+

Our Under

24%

vs 39% bookie

Our Over

76%

vs 63% bookie

Under Edge -14.2%
Over Edge +14.2%
👍 MODERATE Swiss Super League
FC Thun v FC ST. Gallen
Sat 13 Dec, 19:30
Over 2.5
@ 1.58
Prob: 75% +13.7% edge
View analysis xG: 2.50
Expected Goals 2.50
0 2.5 line 5+

Our Under

25%

vs 40% bookie

Our Over

75%

vs 63% bookie

Under Edge -13.7%
Over Edge +13.7%
👍 MODERATE League One
AFC Wimbledon v Mansfield Town
Sat 13 Dec, 12:30
Over 2.5
@ 2.21
Prob: 57% +13.2% edge
View analysis xG: 2.13
Expected Goals 2.13
0 2.5 line 5+

Our Under

43%

vs 59% bookie

Our Over

57%

vs 45% bookie

Under Edge -13.2%
Over Edge +13.2%
👍 MODERATE Greek Super League
OFI v Panserraikos
Sat 13 Dec, 16:00
Over 2.5
@ 1.88
Prob: 64% +12.9% edge
View analysis xG: 2.29
Expected Goals 2.29
0 2.5 line 5+

Our Under

36%

vs 50% bookie

Our Over

64%

vs 53% bookie

Under Edge -12.9%
Over Edge +12.9%
👍 MODERATE Scottish Premiership
Falkirk v Heart Of Midlothian
Sat 13 Dec, 20:00
Over 2.5
@ 1.97
Prob: 62% +12.6% edge
View analysis xG: 2.25
Expected Goals 2.25
0 2.5 line 5+

Our Under

38%

vs 51% bookie

Our Over

62%

vs 51% bookie

Under Edge -12.6%
Over Edge +12.6%
👍 MODERATE Scottish Premiership
Livingston v Dundee
Sat 13 Dec, 15:00
Over 2.5
@ 2.00
Prob: 62% +12.6% edge
View analysis xG: 2.23
Expected Goals 2.23
0 2.5 line 5+

Our Under

38%

vs 52% bookie

Our Over

62%

vs 50% bookie

Under Edge -12.6%
Over Edge +12.6%
👍 MODERATE Swiss Super League
FC ST. Gallen v FC Sion
Tue 16 Dec, 19:30
Over 2.5
@ 1.90
Prob: 62% +12.2% edge
View analysis xG: 2.25
Expected Goals 2.25
0 2.5 line 5+

Our Under

38%

vs 52% bookie

Our Over

62%

vs 53% bookie

Under Edge -12.2%
Over Edge +12.2%
👍 MODERATE Serie A
Fiorentina v Verona
Sun 14 Dec, 14:00
Over 2.5
@ 2.25
Prob: 56% +12.2% edge
View analysis xG: 2.12
Expected Goals 2.12
0 2.5 line 5+

Our Under

44%

vs 57% bookie

Our Over

56%

vs 44% bookie

Under Edge -12.2%
Over Edge +12.2%
👍 MODERATE Austrian Bundesliga
Austria Vienna v Sturm Graz
Sun 14 Dec, 16:00
Over 2.5
@ 1.96
Prob: 62% +12.1% edge
View analysis xG: 2.25
Expected Goals 2.25
0 2.5 line 5+

Our Under

38%

vs 50% bookie

Our Over

62%

vs 51% bookie

Under Edge -12.1%
Over Edge +12.1%
👍 MODERATE League Two
Bristol Rovers v Swindon Town
Sat 13 Dec, 12:30
Over 2.5
@ 1.88
Prob: 63% +12.1% edge
View analysis xG: 2.26
Expected Goals 2.26
0 2.5 line 5+

Our Under

37%

vs 51% bookie

Our Over

63%

vs 53% bookie

Under Edge -12.1%
Over Edge +12.1%

📊 O/U Model Stats

LIVE

21,736 matches validated

Under 2.5 60.4%
Over 2.5 65.0%
+4.7%

Under ROI

+1.6%

Over ROI

🎯 Edge Tiers

Strong
15%+
Good
12-15%
Moderate
10-12%
Speculative
5-10%
ℹ️ How It Works

Under 2.5 = 0, 1, or 2 total goals in match

Over 2.5 = 3+ total goals in match

Edge = Our probability minus bookmaker's implied probability

⚠️ Under Exclusions: La Liga & Ligue 1 historically negative ROI

💰 Suggested Stakes

Flat 1.5-2% of bankroll

£75

on £5k

£150

on £10k

£300

on £20k